Thứ Tư, 3 tháng 10, 2012

Vietnam is a 'bad example' for development. The responsibility will belong to whom?



Vietnam's economy has been being in a serious recession after a series of corruption scandals and serious financial state-owned companies and the banking system, monetary financing of various different areas under the administration and supervision from the head of the government to other senior officials from local to central government. Rampant corruption in the country is the main cause of the collapse and severe recession pushed the country's economy to the edge of the abyss. Meanwhile, the State leaders, the leaders of the Party and government leaders at all levels have only always worried about power struggles and fighting each other to control their own power.

Most of the state-owned companies of all fields are the forces behind government backing and support. All economic benefits are separate flow lines into the purse of the government officials, large and small depend on the powers and position of each person in the ruling leadership of the current communist regime. However, when the state-owned company in the field this fall into bankruptcy and violations detected is almost absent from these respected leaders, or responsible for will be push each other and end the same as the plans or special rescue plan is a sacrifice one person to rescue many people or  sacrifice the subordinate to save leaders that those who are knowledgeable entertainment on the subject "chess or Chinese chess" often understood as: "sacrifice vehicles to rescue general" aimed first of all to save face for the country, for the government and then will be a safe landing for the leaders of the Party and government already entangled in corruption aforementioned bad.

Operating and governing the country as mentioned lead to the bitter unpredictable consequences not only can not end corruption, but also the incentives for corruption have the opportunity to develop. Contrary to the democratic countries in the world, government leaders or leaders of the Ministry or others is always in position ready to take responsibility and action both immediately resigned when serious incidents occur which sometimes when the cause of the implications that only due to the shortcomings or mistakes of subordinates caused, in Vietnam, the leaders of the government are often irresponsible and have proved themselves as very involved when the incidents such as the recent case: Vinashin, Vinalines ....
It is shameful that even when people discovered the weak capacity and their irresponsible, the powerful leader said on standing pat, hug their power chair even despite some people's fate, the fate of the country and nation. To get in touch all events together our people will understand why the Vietnamese communist government so far has refused to accept a pluralistic- multi parties government  and whether diversity of the Vietnamese economy South is near the right hand edge of a cliff and the investors in the world gradually distanced themselves from the Vietnamese and oddity as Mr. Rob Cox who founder of the "new look" of Reuters posted on the magazine "Newsweek" famous in the United States on last October 1 with the title "Vietnam's economy from tiger to cat".


Vietnam is a 'bad example' for development

Update: 13:02 GMT, Tuesday, October 2, 2012

Một nông dân ngồi bán ngô mới thu hoạch ở ngoại ô Hà Nội hồi tháng 9/2012

Many people lost their land for industrial parks empty

American editor of Reuters last post view Vietnam as typical of what not to do follow when develop economic.

By Rob Cox, founder of the 'new look' of Reuters, published on the famous American magazine Newsweek on 1/10 titled ' from tiger to cat: Vietnam's economy has deviated tracks like '.

Rob Cox begins with the story almost two years ago, when the economic situation in Vietnam did not encounter many problems and the female governor of Washington, Christine Gregoire, available in Ho Chi Minh City to personally invite diners to enjoy Its KFC fries, the dish is made from potatoes grown in her own state.

But he said the most important stop on her visit of the governor is the Cai Mep deep water port in Ba Ria - Vung Tau at everything promising prospects.

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The world is looking at Vietnam as economic tigers, a smaller version of its northern neighbors of China thanks to abundant natural resources, long coastline, not more less than in Thailand or California, most people young and literate while self-sufficiency in agriculture.

Governor Gregoire goes to Cai Mep to launch the Nuoc Sau port the $ 160 million, the joint venture between a subsidiary of Vinalines Maritime Corporation and its subsidiaries Carrix is ​​headquartered in Seattle.

'Rickety Institutions'

Nearly 24 months later, things have changed.

Newsweek said the number of container vessels to Cai Mep port and two other venture of Vinalines halved in the second quarter amid a price war broke out between the port operators are redundant site.

Vinalines themselves sinking in a sea of ​​debt and the embezzlement scandal assets made six of its officials arrested while former president Duong Chi Dung was wanted for three months and then was arrested abroad and extradition about Vietnam.

Rob Cox said: "In short, Vietnam has an attractive destination for foreign investment into the child was named for the management of wrongdoing."

The creaking communist institutions' have not been able to absorb all investment and capital allocation leads to wrong. "
Rob Cox

The author said too much money was poured into Vietnam in the past decade, especially after it joined the World Trade Organization in January 2007.

Articles citing data from the World Bank says foreign investment in Vietnam in 2007 by the amount of money poured into Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand and the rest of Southeast Asia combined.

Rob Cox said "rickety communist institutions' have not been able to absorb all investment and capital allocation leads to wrong.

On 28/9, credit rating firm Moody's has reduced the credibility of the eight commercial banks in Vietnam and Vietnam's low credibility to B2, the lowest level ever.

Newsweek quoted Ruchir Sharma, author of The Breakthrough and the head of emerging market securities of Morgan Stanley in New York said:

"Vietnam is a typical example of a small country imposed for greatness. Ruled the country who are not prepared nor qualified to handle the flow of foreign investment giant cross last century. "

Investing in the wrong place

Trụ sở Vinalines

Reuters estimates government debt of about 100 
companies 50 billion dollars

Rob Cox said the initial foreign investment poured into the utility infrastructure projects such as Cai Mep, roads, bridges across rivers and highways.

But then it flows into the apartment building, the luxury housing that so many of these works are unfinished or uninhabited.

Vietnam has taken agricultural land to build industrial parks to welcome investors.

The author citation Vietnam News found that of more than 3,600 hectares of the 20 industrial zones such, only 800 hectares were used.

Post on Newsweek said only own over-investment in real estate is enough to create its own consequences, but it became worse when banks in Vietnam with the help of the government have continued to pour money into the economy to foreign investment slowdown in 2008.

Rob Cox estimates of the HSBC bank in which credit in the United States quadrupled in the past six years and says:

"Worse, much of the money poured into inefficient state-owned enterprises as Vinalines under the guidance of the public servants and those who benefit from the divided system of party by good relations.

If they can find a way to change the caution for the better, they can be a positive example for Myanmar and other emerging economies. "
Rob Cox

"One hundred largest enterprises of Vietnam currently owe about $ 50 billion, more than a third of the country's GDP, according to Reuters calculations.

"If a company collapse - which is not unlikely - it can make a big banking crisis."

'Suspicion' government

Biển hiệu của Vinashin

Vietnam not pay for Vinashin though this is State 

State Bank Governor Nguyen Van Binh said in July that bad loans in the banking system at 9%, but foreign banks estimate the actual number is much higher.

The National Assembly of Vietnam itself says banks need $ 12 billion of capital.

By Rob Cox said the country's foreign exchange reserves at 14 billion dollars, funding for banks is difficult while inflation will rise and the devaluation if the State Bank to print money. Another solution, according to the article, is pulled back foreign investors.

But if former foreign investor enthusiasm how much time they hesitate much.

A typical example is from early this year Vietnam has only sold $ 250 million of bonds.

Rob Cox said investors are not only concerned about the economic situation, but also doubt the Vietnamese government did not pay for the capital state conglomerate Vinashin and intervene in the court's decision to hear the case related to business.

The author also said Vietnam is difficult to eliminate need to rescue in some form.

By Rob Cox, the Chinese have a lot of capital but less likely that Vietnam will lose even a little sovereignty in exchange for the capital of the "historical enemies".

He also wrote: "While that Washington can easily arrange a bailout from the International Monetary Fund.

"Such an agreement can even lay the groundwork for the return of U.S. warships to the port of Cam Ranh.

"In any case, the current disillusionment that any source of money flowing into Vietnam also comes the condition.

"Sweeping reforms, including privatization, lumbering state enterprises as well as compliance with stricter rules.

"Both of these will upset the ruling elite which rides Porsche and Bentley beside pedicabs on the congested streets of Hanoi's Old Quarter."

Finally, the authors conclude:

"The Vietnamese legitimate pride would not want to lose the impact, if any, for such organizations as the International Monetary Fund.

"But if they can find a way to change the caution for the better, they can be a positive example for Myanmar and other emerging economies."

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